Understanding Peruvian Economies through Applied Macroeconometrics: Tools and Techniques for Effective Economic Forecasting and Analysis

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Overview

The focus of this book lies in four chapters that study four different macroeconomic empirical applications. The first chapter examines the economic cycles of the member countries of the Pacific Alliance Area. Explores how the common cycle of this group of countries is estimated through the Kalman Filter algorithm, and then compared to each country's economic cycle. Specifically analyzes the economic cycles of the member countries of the Pacific Alliance. Further, the second chapter identifies economic variables that predict episodes of high volatility in the exchange market. The investigation has how objective to identify economic variables that predict episodes of high volatility in the exchange market, all in order to contribute to the construction of new monetary policies that reduce the risk of a balance sheet effect on families and firms. The third chapter determines which macroeconomic variables influence the fluctuation of the Peruvian exchange market. We use structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) models with short-term restrictions, through which shocks of nominal and real variables are simulated in order to analyze the exchange market response. The results show that nominal shocks impact much more than real shocks. Finally, the fourth chapter analyzes the effects of copper prices volatility on these main macroeconomic variables. Analyze the effects of copper prices volatility on these main macroeconomic variables. For this are proposed a TVP-VAR-SV model. It can be seen how the effects are amplified in periods of high volatility in the price of copper.