Bayesian Decision Analysis

Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.

• | Author: Jim Q. Smith
• | Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• | Publication Date: Sep 23, 2010
• | Number of Pages: 348 pages
• | Binding: Hardback or Cased Book
• | ISBN-10: 0521764548
• | ISBN-13: 9780521764544